作品原文：
Economists expect GDP to return to growth in Q2
By LI XIANG | CHINA DAILY |
China's economy may return to the expansion mode from the second quarter after a sharp contraction in the first quarter, and the country's policies will remain supportive for the rest of the year to help the economy advance steadily out of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts said.
The country is scheduled to release a set of key economic data this week on second-quarter GDP, trade, investment, industrial production and retail sales.
While the government has abandoned setting a specific growth target for this year, much attention remains focused on the second-quarter GDP growth rate as it will shed light on the outlook for the world's second-largest economy and Beijing's future policy direction.
Most economists expect the country's GDP growth rate to turn positive in the second quarter with some projecting growth as high as 3 percent, a sharp rebound from the 6.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter.
The optimistic views reinforced expectations that China's economic recovery will continue in the coming quarters, driven by further improvement of domestic demand and investment along with continuous policy support in key areas including employment and corporate operations.
Some economists forecast that China's GDP growth could rebound to around 6 percent in the second half of the year and the country may achieve full-year growth of around 2 to 3 percent.
The recent economic data continued to indicate that China's economy is recovering strongly as both the official and private purchasing managers indexes for the manufacturing and services sectors showed strong expansion in June compared with the previous month.
The country's industrial production is expected to continue to edge higher while the contraction in retail sales is expected to narrow to around zero in June from-2.8 percent in May. Growth in fixed-asset investment will remain robust with infrastructure investment expanding at a double-digit rate thanks to abundant government funding, economists said.
"Economic recovery should continue, following the recent rebound in the second quarter. Domestic consumption will likely improve further with continued policy support and the normalization of economic activity," said Wang Tao, chief China economist at Swiss bank UBS.
"We expect policies to remain supportive while the continued recovery lately has reduced incentives for greater stimulus in the short term," Wang said.
The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, said on Friday that it will withdraw its special-time monetary policy after fulfilling the objectives amid the COVID-19 outbreak, but this does not mean a shift in the overall direction of monetary policy or a weakening of support for the economy. The policy outlook will remain prudent and flexible by focusing on providing appropriate funding to support economic growth in the second half of the year, said the PBOC.
Economists warned that the better-than-expected rebound does not mean that China's economic recovery will be plain sailing as headwinds and uncertainties remain in the second half of the year.
Wang Jun, chief economist at Zhongyuan Bank, said that the difficulties facing the country's smaller businesses and low-income families may drag down the economic rebound in the second half of 2020.
Wang said that China's fiscal policy support needs to intensify in the second half of the year to ensure sufficient funding for major projects and the protection of people's basic livelihoods. Meanwhile, monetary policy will be more targeted to help lower funding costs for smaller businesses, as there have been signs of marginal policy fine-tuning by the central bank, he added.
The uncertainties resulting from China-US disputes in trade and the technology sector and the decline of the global economy may also pose risks for China as these factors could hit the country's exports. In addition, the possibility of a re-escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic as the weather cools down in the third and fourth quarters also means that policy easing may step up again, economists said.
"We should not underestimate the destruction caused by the pandemic on the global value chain, and China will need to continue its policy support to shore up demand, expand investment and adjust its export structure to ensure stable growth," said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the China Association of Policy Sciences' economic policy committee.
作品译文：
中国经济有望强劲复苏，二季度GDP或由负转正
2020年7月13日 中国日报记者李想报道
中国经济预计在一季度大幅收缩后将强劲复苏，GDP有望从第二季度恢复正增长。政府将继续出台一系列支持经济复苏和稳定经济增长的政策以帮助经济稳步摆脱新冠疫情带来的负面影响。
中国计划在本周公布包括二季度GDP增速以及贸易、投资、工业生产和社会零售等一系列重要经济数据。
尽管中国政府没有设定今年具体的增长目标，第二季度GDP增速仍然备受关注，因为这将反应世界第二大经济体的增长前景和中国未来的政策方向。主要经济学家预计，中国第二季度GDP将由负转正，一些经济学家预计GDP增速将达到3%左右，在上一季度GDP下降6.8%的基础上大幅反弹。
这一乐观展望强化了市场对中国经济在未来几个季度将继续复苏的预期。经济学家认为中国经济的快速反弹得益于国内需求和投资的进一步改善，特别是政府在关键经济领域出台的一系列保就业、稳增长的支持政策。一些经济学家预测，今年下半年中国GDP增速可能回升至6%左右，全年增速可能达到2%至3%左右。
最新经济数据显示，中国经济正在强劲复苏。6月份官方和财新制造业和服务业采购经理人指数均较上月强劲扩张。预计中国的工业增加值将继续回升，社会消费品零售总额从5月份的-2.8%反弹，并从六月份开始扭转下跌趋势。经济学家认为，得益于充裕的政府纾困资金，中国的固定资产投资仍将保持强劲增长，基础设施投资也将以两位数的速度增长。
瑞银首席中国经济学家汪涛表示在第二季度反弹之后中国经济复苏预计会持续下去。“随着更多政府支持政策出台和国民经济活动的正常化，国内消费可能会进一步改善。”“我们预计政策将持续支持经济复苏，而近期的经济复苏或短期内降低政府出台更大规模刺激政策的可能。”
中国人民银行周五表示在实现防控疫情期间的政策目标后将撤回特殊时期的货币政策，但这并不意味着货币政策总体方向的转变或对经济支持力度减弱。中国人民银行表示，货币政策将保持审慎和灵活适度，政策重点是提供适当的资金量来支持下半年经济增长。
经济学家称，好于预期的经济反弹并不意味着中国经济复苏会一帆风顺，下半年仍面临挑战和不确定性。
中原银行首席经济学家王军表示，中国小企业和低收入家庭面临的困难可能会给2020年下半年的经济反弹带来压力。他表示中国需加大财政政策的支持力度，确保重大项目资金充足，保障人民基本生活。同时货币政策将更有针对性地帮助降低中小企业的融资成本。
经济学家表示，中美贸易和技术领域的争端以及全球经济下滑带来的不确定性也可能给中国经济带来风险，因为这些因素可能会影响中国的出口。此外，随着第三和第四季度天气降温，新冠疫情可能再次升级，这也意味着政府可能再次采取宽松政策。
中国政策科学研究会经济政策委员会副主任徐洪才表示：“我们不应低估新冠疫情对全球产业链造成的破坏，中国需要继续出台更多的支持政策以提振国内需求，并通过扩大投资、调整出口结构确保经济稳定增长。”
