China to keep monetary policy stable（中国将保持稳健的货币政策）

　　China to keep monetary policy stable

　　July main inflation barometer up 2.7% year-on-year; high pork prices to blame

　　By OUYANG SHIJIA

　　China will likely keep its monetary policy stable and on target in the second half as consumer inflation is expected to rise mildly within a reasonable range in the rest of the year, experts said.

　　Their comments came as China's consumer inflation accelerated to the highest level in two years, largely driven by surging pork prices, but it still managed to come in weaker than expected in July.

　　China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in July, following a 2.5 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

　　The growth in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is deemed as a better gauge of the supply-demand relationship in the economy, came in at 0.8 percent year-on-year in July, following a 1 percent rise the previous month.

　　Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the rise in July CPI was largely due to soaring pork prices as some producers were reluctant to sell hogs ready for the market.

　　Looking ahead, Zheng expects consumer prices may fluctuate in August, and the rise in CPI may struggle to surpass 3 percent year-on-year during the month.

　　Compared with soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price levels are generally stable. Inflation hit a 40-year high in June in the United States, as the consumer price index rose 9.1 percent year-on-year, said the US Department of Labor.  

　　Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, a think tank, said the spillover effect of rising global food prices on China's domestic food costs will also likely be modest, given China's self-sufficiency in staple grains in the near term.

　　With limited pass-through of factory-gate inflation and energy prices on consumer prices and subdued core inflation due to weak domestic demand, Wu said his team expects China's consumer inflation to remain below the 3 percent target for 2022.

　　Against such a backdrop, he said monetary easing will remain targeted to support credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure financing.

　　A report released on Wednesday by the People's Bank of China said China may face mounting inflationary pressure at home due to factors including a recovery in consumer demand, rising pork prices and high energy and raw material costs, and imported inflationary pressures will continue to exist.

　　Looking into the second half, the nation's central bank said China's consumer inflation will rise at a faster pace than the level in the first half, and the CPI rise may exceed 3 percent in some months.

　　According to the report, China will continue to keep prudent monetary policy and refrain from adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies. And it will keep an eye on the inflation situation both at home and abroad.  

　　Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said the country's economy is gradually rebounding amid recovering market demand, as many sectors included in core CPI jumped on a monthly basis.

　　For instance, NBS data showed prices of plane tickets, hotel accommodations and tourism increased by 6.1 percent, 5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in July on a monthly basis. 

　　Even though China is facing inflationary pressure from soaring pork prices in the coming months, Wen said the government's recent moves to stabilize supplies and prices will help ensure market orderliness.

　　As for the rest of the year, he said his team expects the CPI to rise modestly and the producer price index to continue to trend down, which will not put extra pressure on monetary policy easing.

　　According to the NBS, China's PPI, which gauges factory-gate prices, increased 4.2 percent year-on-year in July after a 6.1 percent rise in June, cooling to the lowest level since February 2021. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined 1.3 percent in July. 

　　Yin Yue, a macroeconomics analyst at Shanghai-listed Hongta Securities, agreed that inflation will not put much pressure on China's monetary easing, especially considering the relatively low core CPI level and the slowdown in PPI growth. 

　　Looking ahead, Feng Mohan, a macroeconomics researcher at Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Co Ltd, said he will not rule out the possibility that the PPI will decline in the second half amid weakening global demand, a gloomy global outlook and a high base effect from the previous year.

　　中文译稿：

　　中国将保持稳健的货币政策

　　受猪肉涨价因素影响，7月份CPI同比上涨2.7%

　　中国日报记者欧阳诗嘉

　　专家指出，下半年中国通货膨胀水平有望在合理区间内温和上升，稳健的货币政策将持续精准有力。

　　他们发表上述言论之际，中国通胀上升到了两年以来的最高水平，很大程度上是受到猪肉价格上涨的影响，但是通胀水平仍控制在7月的预期值以内。

　　国家统计局周三发布的数据显示，7月份，衡量通胀的主要指标全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，而6月份的CPI同比上涨2.5%。

　　7月份，核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，而上月同比上涨1.0%。核心CPI不包括波动性较大的食品和能源价格，被认为是衡量经济供需关系的更好指标。

　　英大证券研究所所长郑后成表示，在前期企业压栏惜售以及二次育肥推迟出栏的背景下，猪肉价格大幅上行，对7月CPI同比上涨形成拉动。

　　展望未来，郑后成预计，8月CPI当月同比大概率在7月的基础上震荡，破“3”概率较低。

　　与其他主要经济体的物价普遍大涨相比，中国的物价总体保持稳定。美国劳工部的数据显示，美国6月份通胀率升至9.1%，创40年来新高。

　　牛津经济研究院高级经济学家胡东安认为，考虑到中国主粮短期内能自给自足，国际市场粮食价格的上涨对中国粮价的溢出效应是有限的。

　　胡东安称，由于工业生产者出厂价格以及能源价格上涨对国内物价的传导影响有限，再加上国内需求不旺对核心CPI的抑制作用，他的团队预期2022年中国通胀率将保持在3%的目标值以内。

　　在这样的背景下，胡东安表示中国将会保持精准有力的货币政策，为中小企业、制造业、房地产和基建融资提供信贷支持。

　　中国人民银行周三发布的报告指出，下一阶段，受消费需求复苏回暖、新一轮猪肉价格上涨周期开启、能源和原材料成本仍处高位等因素影响，国内结构性通胀压力可能加大，输入性通胀压力依然存在。

　　展望下半年，人民银行指出，预计CPI涨幅将有所上行，中枢较上半年水平抬升，一些月份涨幅可能阶段性突破3%。

　　央行报告指出，下一阶段货币政策将坚持稳健取向，坚持不搞“大水漫灌”、 不超发货币，同时密切关注国内外通胀形势变化。

　　中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出，核心CPI多行业环比上涨，反映实体需求温和复苏，中国经济正在逐步回升。

　　举例而言，国家统计局数据显示， 7月份飞机票、宾馆住宿和旅游价格环比分别上涨6.1%、5.0%和3.5%。

　　温彬称，尽管随着猪肉价格进入回升周期后，未来数月中国通胀面对的压力也在上升，但是政府近期保供稳价的系列举措将有助于保证市场稳定。

　　温彬指出，他的团队预期未来CPI将温和上升，同时，工业生产者出厂价格指数将继续保持连续回落态势，通胀对货币政策不构成较大压力。

　　国家统计局数据显示，7月份全国工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比上涨4.2%，环比下降1.3%，已降至2021年3月以来的最低水平。而6月份PPI同比上涨6.1%。PPI是衡量工业企业产品出厂价格变动趋势和变动程度的指数。

　　红塔证券宏观分析师殷越也认为，市场不用太担心物价上行会对当前货币政策形成掣肘，尤其是考虑到核心CPI还较低，PPI同比后续还会下行。

　　展望未来，北京福盛德咨询宏观经济研究员冯默涵表示，全球需求走弱导致快速进入衰退的可能性比较大，而且面对去年同期高基数的效应，他不排除PPI下半年转负的可能性。